Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Box Office Prediction Update

The summer movie season is over. Yes, it’s sad. Dry your eyes. You’ll have to wait for the DVD to see stupid robots portray stereotypes. I hate it too.

But how did I do? I made some predictions in April. Some shined, some tanked, some neared the mark, some aren’t out yet.

Not bad

Wolverine: I guessed #6 for the year and $208 million. It’s #8 now, so I guess it can’t get better. I went about 13% too high.

Up: It blew away analyst guesses, including mine by about 30%. Yikes. But, I did put it at #5 for the year, which should be close in the end. It currently sits at #3 for the year.

What the?

The Hangover: Who knew this low-budget comedy would make more than seven times its production cost? It’s lasting as long as the hangover the guys had in the movie. At $270 million it will stay in the top 10.

Ice Age 3: It is just behind Monster vs. Aliens for second on the animated gross list and #7 overall. Yet it’s made more than $600 million overseas, beating Spider-Man, The Phantom Menace, and every animated movie ever made.

Failed it

Terminator: Salvation: Yikes. Ouch. Yeesh. These are sounds coming from me and Warner Brothers. I missed its total by only, oh, more than $100 million. It is number one in bust of the year.

Star Trek: It attracted the nerd crown, the geek crowd, and enough of the mainstream, I-pretend-to-be-neither-nerd-nor-geek crowd to make it #1 for several weeks. Though it is at #5 now, it should slip closer to my guess of #9 for the year.

Nailed it

Night at the Museum 2: Original guess: $170 million. Current total: about $177 million.

Harry Potter 6: My guess: $317 million, #2. Current total: $298 million, #2. It should scrape past $300 million.

Transformers 2: My guess: $415 million, #1. Current total: $400 million, #1. BAM!

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